Toronto overtakes Chicago as fourth-largest city in North America

Toronto has leap-frogged Chicago to become the fourth-largest city in North America, according to a new report that came before the economic development committee Tuesday.

The latest data from Statistics Canada and the U.S. Census Bureau show Toronto’s population at an estimated 2,791,140, narrowly edging out Chicago, which sits at an estimated 2,707,120. The top three spots go to Mexico City, New York and Los Angeles.

“These population figures are another sign confirming Toronto’s steady growth,” Mayor Rob Ford said in a statement. “Toronto is a desirable location for people to live and work. We are attracting people from across North America and other parts of the world.”

The Economic Dashboard report relied on Statistics Canada’s July 2012 population estimates, released last month, which also revised the city’s 2011 population estimate to add 9,400 people. The latest available U.S. Census Bureau data for Chicago was from 2011.

The population figures refer to the cities proper, rather than their metropolitan areas. When the latter is taken into account, Chicago outstrips Toronto by several million people.

Toronto’s annual population growth rate has risen steadily over the last decade, and the city’s numbers are now increasing by about 38,000 people annually. But while that is overall a positive thing, said Pierre Desrochers, associate professor of economic development at the University of Toronto’s Mississauga campus, the city must seriously consider a host of related problems, from transit to increased housing costs.

“Historically, whether we’re fourth or seventh doesn’t really matter,” Mr. Desrochers said. “What really matters for the future of the GTA is whether we can address the problems that come with that growth.”

He pointed to another list that Toronto tops: that of worst average commute times in North America. Such issues will play a key role in whether Toronto remains an attractive city for newcomers in the years ahead, Mr. Desrochers noted.

Here is what the Economic Dashboard had to say about other elements of the city’s economy:

Population Estimates: Toronto’s population has been increasing over the past 10 years and has yet to stabilize or decrease.

The annual rate of increase is 38,000 people. Although immigration to the city of Toronto has declined, intra-provincial moves and a natural increase in births and deaths are the factors that contribute to the steady upward climb. The population in Toronto has caused a ripple effect in other areas of the economy.

Housing: According to the Economic Dashboard, Toronto real estate is stable and expected to moderate in the years to come.

The Toronto Real Estate board reported a 9% decrease in house sales but a 7% increase in the average price. The report suggests that changes to mortgage insurance rules in July 2012 contributed to the drop in the resale market.

Building: Toronto ranks first in North America, with 184 buildings under construction. The total value of building permits in 2012 — $6.2-billion — was three times higher than it was 10 years ago, but that number is still lower than 2010 and 2011. The number of issued industrial, commercial and instructional permits have decreased since 2011, yet the value of commercial permits have remained unchanged.

Office Market: Toronto’s office market is in the midst of a location tug of war. In the suburbs and cities outside of Toronto, vacancy in office space is rising. The office vacancy rate in the 905 area is now over 10%, the report says, compared to a rate of 4.4% downtown.

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